The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has proposed a major change to the H-1B program: replacing the random lottery with a system that gives higher-paid jobs better odds of being selected. It’s the latest in a series of moves reshaping the visa, following the new $100,000 petition fee and the Department of Labor’s “Project Firewall” enforcement push.
How the New System Would Work
Under the plan, scheduled to be published in the Federal Register on Thursday, H-1B registrations would be entered into the lottery more times depending on their wage level:
- Level IV (64th percentile): 4 entries
- Level III (50th percentile): 3 entries
- Level II (34th percentile): 2 entries
- Level I (17th percentile): 1 entry
These levels are based on Department of Labor data for typical salaries in each occupation and location.
By the Numbers (from DHS Proposed Rule)
- 500,000 eligible H-1B registrations received for FY2025
- 85,000 total available spots (65,000 regular + 20,000 advanced degree)
- 48% projected decrease in selection odds for Level I wage workers
- 107% projected increase in selection odds for Level IV wage workers
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Why This Matters
The current lottery often favors lower-wage roles. According to DHS, data shows that higher-paying positions (Levels III and IV) are the least represented among approved petitions. The new rule would shift incentives for employers to offer stronger salaries and apply for more senior-level roles.
Boundless CEO Xiao Wang said the change is a step toward balance. “Employers are nudged to offer stronger wages and petition for more senior roles,” Wang said. “But international students and entry-level workers still have a shot, since total entries are spread across all wage levels.”
However, if the emphasis is solely on higher wages, new graduates, even in legitimate specialty roles in STEM and other fields, could be disadvantaged. Startups and smaller companies may also struggle to compete, since they often can’t match the top salaries of larger employers. It remains unclear whether DHS will take total compensation into account under the new proposal. Under the current rules, only base salary is considered — stock options and other incentives are excluded.
Impact on Workers and Employers
If finalized, the changes would affect groups differently:
- Tech consulting firms may sponsor fewer mid-tier roles.
- Recent graduates could see mixed outcomes, depending on field and pay.
- International students may choose to pursue advanced degrees or higher-paying jobs to improve their odds.
- Companies hiring senior talent will have a much better chance of securing visas.
Demand for H-1Bs remains extremely high: this year USCIS received nearly 500,000 eligible registrations for only 85,000 spots.
What’s Next
This is still a proposal. DHS will accept public comments for 30 days after it’s published in the Federal Register. If approved, the new system would likely take effect for the fiscal year 2026 H-1B lottery.